WARNING!  YOUR COMPETITOR'S RATINGS TANKED! 

-- Michael Packer News Talk Notes 

When your competitor appears to be in trouble, and you’ve had a great book, your first impulse may be to break out the champagne and celebrate with your team.  After all, the other PD’s loss is your gain.  But, after the party, you may want to pause and think about the following:

Is Your Competitor’s Ratings Crash Real?

If they’ve had pretty steady ratings trends over the past year, a remarkable one book drop may be a statistical fluke.  Break out their ratings especially the AQH and Cume audience composition Monday-Sunday and find out which of their demos bit the dust.  Then check out Arbitron’s sampling in those demos.  If they were significantly low and had to be weighted up, it’s possible your competitor experienced a sampling anomaly, and will bounce back the next book.  You can only hope they WILL overreact and start fixing what is not broken.  

DANGER!  If They’ve Hit Bottom, Their Troubles May Soon Be Your Problem!

If they’ve been on a downward trend and just hit a new low, consider their troubles a warning sign!

In the book “Predatory Marketing” there is an excellent chapter titled “Never Underestimate The Competition”.  Author C. Britt Beemer writes:

“When a competitor becomes desperate, he may become dangerous.  Why?  Because desperation inspires risk-taking.  And when people are forced to take drastic measures, they could do creative things they might not otherwise have done. “What do I have to lose?” they ask themselves.”

“It sometimes takes a down period or lost market share to alert management to a danger signal.  When a company gets into enough trouble, high-level management finally begins to raise questions:  “How did we get into this mess?”  This is followed up by “What do we have to do to rid ourselves of this problem?”

Warning Signals that indicate the Competition Is Waking Up:

l      They’ve just hired a consultant. 

After several back to back ratings busts, management may conclude that they might not have all the answers.  Although a consultant is not necessarily a panacea, it can help to employ an experienced third pair of ears to listen to the station, provide insight from a national perspective and field local audience research.  If the consultant has a successful history of helping management and talent get back on a winning track, watch out!

l The PD has been canned and a New Program Director has just arrived. 

The first thing a new program director must prove to management is that she/he is going to make a difference.  That may mean the dust will fly, new programming philosophies will be instituted, some talk hosts will be fired or eased out, new liners, jingles, bumper music, and promos will hit the air all giving the station a fresher sound.  Find out what the new PD’s ratings track record is.  Is the PD’s niche in news, talk or sports?   What’s the plan?  Often, a PD will spill the beans to your local newspaper columnists and drop a few clues here and there about upcoming strategy.

Bottom Line: Avoid that feeling of SMUGNESS.   

In today’s highly competitive environment, you can’t rest on your laurels just because the competition is having a tough time.  When your competitor hits bottom, you may become vulnerable.   Stay the course, continue to super serve your target, but carefully track your competitor’s efforts to reassume a competitive position. 

You can reach Michael Packer at: PackerNTPD@aol.com